Central African Republic vs Burkina Faso: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 2Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade Omnisports de Bafoussam, Bafoussam
The Footlab model makes Burkina Faso the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Central African Republic. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Central African Republic vs Burkina Faso?
Burkina Faso starts as the favourite with a 237-point Elo edge (1,589 vs 1,352).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Central African Republic have 1 wins, 5 draws and 9 defeats; Burkina Faso have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Angola(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Togo(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Chad(away) | 3-2 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Ghana(home) | 0-5 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Sep 7, 2025 | Comoros(home) | 0-2 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Belarus(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Russia(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Guinea-Bissau(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Guinea-Bissau(home) | 5-0 | Friendlies |
| Jan 6, 2026 | Ivory Coast(away) | 0-3 | Africa Cup of Nations |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Central African Republic win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Burkina Faso win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2025 | Burkina Faso 4-2 Central African Republic | African Nations Championship |
Last archived meeting: Burkina Faso vs Central African Republic on Aug 6, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Central African Republic score 0.6 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Burkina Faso score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central African Republic | 0.6 | 1.9 | 3 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Burkina Faso | 1.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Central African Republic sit 4th in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (3 points from 6 matches) and Burkina Faso sit 2nd (10 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 10 |
| 4 | Central African Republic | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Central African Republic vs Burkina Faso?
- The Footlab model makes Burkina Faso the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Central African Republic.
- Where and when is Central African Republic vs Burkina Faso played?
- Central African Republic vs Burkina Faso is played on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Omnisports de Bafoussam, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.