Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Victory: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 23Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 05:00 AM (UTC)Industree Group Stadium, Gosford
The Footlab AI model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Central Coast Mariners. The most likely score is 1-1. If Melbourne Victory wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,718 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Victory?
Melbourne Victory starts as the favourite with a 169-point Elo edge (1,895 vs 1,726).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Victory
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Central Coast Mariners
4-4-2- 9O. Lavale
- 37B. Brandtman
- 72A. Auglah
- 8C. Donnell
- 6H. Eames
- 41Shumba Mutokoyi
- 5L. Mauragis
- 15S. Roux
- 12Noah McCann
- 3Samuel Dikoš
- 30A. Redmayne
Melbourne Victory
4-4-1-1- 44C. Nduka
- 8J. Valadon
- 14M. Grimaldi
- 11Clarismario Rodrigues
- 10D. Genreau
- 23K. Jelacic
- 16J. Inserra
- 3J. Davidson
- 18F. Lino
- 4P. Ziereis
- 25J. Duncan
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 06:08 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Central Coast Mariners have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Melbourne Victory have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Newcastle Jets(home) | 2-2 | A-League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Vanuatu United(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Vanuatu United(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Sydney United(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Newcastle Jets(away) | 0-4 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Wellington Phoenix(away) | 1-2 | A-League |
| Oct 14, 2026 | FC Seoul(home) | 3-0 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Oct 10, 2026 | South Melbourne(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Viettel(away) | 1-1 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Sydney(away) | 2-0 | Australia Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Central Coast Mariners wins, 1 draw, 2 Melbourne Victory wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Melbourne Victory 4-1 Central Coast Mariners | A-League |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners 1-0 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Melbourne Victory 3-0 Central Coast Mariners | A-League |
| Oct 18, 2024 | Central Coast Mariners 0-0 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| May 25, 2024 | Central Coast Mariners 3-1 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Feb 25, 2024 | Melbourne Victory 0-1 Central Coast Mariners | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Central Coast Mariners score 1.4 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Melbourne Victory score 1.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Coast Mariners | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Melbourne Victory | 1.9 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Central Coast Mariners sit 4th in A-League (1 point from 1 match) and Melbourne Victory sit 11th (0 points from 1 match).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Central Coast Mariners | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 11 | Melbourne Victory | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
A question about Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Victory?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Victory?
- The Footlab AI model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Central Coast Mariners.
- Where and when is Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Victory played?
- Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Victory is played on April 4, 2027 at 05:00 AM (UTC) at Industree Group Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.