Cerro vs Cerrito: prediction and stats
Copa UruguayRound of 32Kick-off on September 10, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Monumental Luis Tróccoli, Montevideo
The Footlab model makes Cerro the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Cerrito. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cerro vs Cerrito?
Cerro starts as the favourite with a 103-point Elo edge (1,665 vs 1,562).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cerro have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Cerrito have 5, 7 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Liverpool Montevideo(away) | 0-4 | Primera División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Albion FC(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Danubio(away) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Defensor Sporting(away) | 1-2 | Primera División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Racing Montevideo(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Uruguay Montevideo(home) | 3-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Oriental(home) | 1-1 | Segunda División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Colón(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Fenix(home) | 1-1 | Segunda División |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Rentistas(away) | 0-0 | Segunda División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Cerro win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Cerrito win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2012 | Cerrito 1-4 Cerro | Primera División - Clausura |
How many goals should we expect?
Cerro score 0.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Cerrito score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cerro | 0.7 | 1.6 | 4 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Cerrito | 1.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cerro vs Cerrito?
- The Footlab model makes Cerro the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Cerrito.
- Where and when is Cerro vs Cerrito played?
- Cerro vs Cerrito is played on September 10, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Monumental Luis Tróccoli, in the Copa Uruguay.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.