Racing Montevideo vs Central Espanol: prediction and stats
Copa UruguayRound of 32Kick-off on September 9, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Parque Osvaldo Roberto, Montevideo
The Footlab model makes Racing Montevideo the favourite at 44%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Central Espanol. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Racing Montevideo vs Central Espanol?
A very open match: only 99 Elo points separate Racing Montevideo (1,820) and Central Espanol (1,721).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Racing Montevideo have 6 wins, 7 draws and 2 defeats; Central Espanol have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Danubio(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Club Nacional(home) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Deportivo Maldonado(away) | 2-2 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Boston River(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Cerro(away) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Juventud(home) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Penarol(away) | 1-2 | Primera División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Progreso(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Liverpool Montevideo(home) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Cerro Largo(home) | 0-1 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Racing Montevideo win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Central Espanol win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Central Espanol 1-1 Racing Montevideo | Primera División |
| May 9, 2026 | Central Espanol 2-0 Racing Montevideo | Primera División |
| Sep 10, 2022 | Central Espanol 1-2 Racing Montevideo | Segunda División |
| Jun 19, 2022 | Racing Montevideo 1-0 Central Espanol | Segunda División |
| Mar 20, 2022 | Central Espanol 1-1 Racing Montevideo | Segunda División |
| Dec 3, 2021 | Racing Montevideo 1-1 Central Espanol | Segunda División |
Last archived meeting: Central Espanol vs Racing Montevideo on Jun 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Racing Montevideo score 0.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Central Espanol score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Montevideo | 0.9 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
| Central Espanol | 1.1 | 1.2 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Racing Montevideo vs Central Espanol?
- The Footlab model makes Racing Montevideo the favourite at 44%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Central Espanol.
- Where and when is Racing Montevideo vs Central Espanol played?
- Racing Montevideo vs Central Espanol is played on September 9, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Parque Osvaldo Roberto, in the Copa Uruguay.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.