Fenix vs Liverpool Montevideo: prediction and stats
Copa UruguayRound of 32Kick-off on August 27, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Parque Capurro, Montevideo
The Footlab model makes Liverpool Montevideo the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Fenix. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fenix vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Liverpool Montevideo starts as the favourite with a 184-point Elo edge (1,825 vs 1,640).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fenix have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Liverpool Montevideo have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tacuarembo(away) | 2-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Plaza Colonia(home) | 1-4 | Segunda División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | La Luz(home) | 0-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Cerrito(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Atenas(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cerro(home) | 4-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Defensor Sporting(away) | 4-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Albion FC(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Central Espanol(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Defensor Sporting(away) | 2-1 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Fenix win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Liverpool Montevideo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2024 | Liverpool Montevideo 1-2 Fenix | Primera División - Clausura |
| Apr 7, 2024 | Fenix 1-3 Liverpool Montevideo | Primera División |
| Sep 3, 2023 | Fenix 1-0 Liverpool Montevideo | Primera División - Clausura |
| Jul 21, 2023 | Fenix 0-1 Liverpool Montevideo | Primera División |
| Feb 20, 2023 | Liverpool Montevideo 3-1 Fenix | Primera División |
| Oct 23, 2022 | Fenix 0-3 Liverpool Montevideo | Primera División - Clausura |
Last archived meeting: Liverpool Montevideo vs Fenix on Oct 11, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Fenix score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Liverpool Montevideo score 1.3 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenix | 1.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
| Liverpool Montevideo | 1.3 | 0.7 | 9 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fenix vs Liverpool Montevideo?
- The Footlab model makes Liverpool Montevideo the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Fenix.
- Where and when is Fenix vs Liverpool Montevideo played?
- Fenix vs Liverpool Montevideo is played on August 27, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Parque Capurro, in the Copa Uruguay.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.