Cesena vs Catanzaro: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 11Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi, Cesena
The Footlab model makes Cesena the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Catanzaro. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cesena vs Catanzaro?
Catanzaro starts as the favourite with a 107-point Elo edge (1,931 vs 1,824).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cesena have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Catanzaro have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sampdoria(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Sassuolo(away) | 0-3 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Forli(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Vis Pesaro(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Fossombrone(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Vicenza Virtus(away) | 2-3 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sudtirol(home) | 2-2 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Giugliano(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Paradiso(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 29, 2026 | Monza(away) | 2-0 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Cesena win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Catanzaro win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Cesena 3-1 Catanzaro | Serie B |
| Dec 27, 2025 | Catanzaro 2-0 Cesena | Serie B |
| May 17, 2025 | Catanzaro 1-0 Cesena | Serie B |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Catanzaro 4-2 Cesena | Serie B |
| Aug 28, 2024 | Cesena 2-0 Catanzaro | Serie B |
How many goals should we expect?
Cesena score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Catanzaro score 2.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cesena | 1.1 | 1.3 | 6 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Catanzaro | 2.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cesena sit 10th in Serie B (1 points from 1 matches) and Catanzaro sit 12th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Cesena | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 12 | Catanzaro | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cesena vs Catanzaro?
- The Footlab model makes Cesena the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Catanzaro.
- Where and when is Cesena vs Catanzaro played?
- Cesena vs Catanzaro is played on November 7, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.