Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 24Kick-off on August 23, 2026 at 09:30 PM (UTC)Arena Condá, Chapecó, Santa Catarina
The Footlab model makes Sao Paulo the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Chapecoense-sc. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo?
Sao Paulo starts as the favourite with a 111-point Elo edge (1,939 vs 1,828).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chapecoense-sc have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Sao Paulo have 2, 7 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Bahia(home) | 3-3 | Serie A |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Coritiba(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Cruzeiro(away) | 0-2 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Cruzeiro(home) | 0-0 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Santos(away) | 2-2 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Bolívar(home) | 3-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Coritiba(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Bolívar(away) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gremio(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Flamengo(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Chapecoense-sc win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Sao Paulo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | Sao Paulo 2-0 Chapecoense-sc | Serie A |
| Oct 3, 2021 | Chapecoense-sc 1-1 Sao Paulo | Serie A |
| Jun 16, 2021 | Sao Paulo 1-1 Chapecoense-sc | Serie A |
| Nov 3, 2019 | Chapecoense-sc 0-3 Sao Paulo | Serie A |
| Jul 22, 2019 | Sao Paulo 4-0 Chapecoense-sc | Serie A |
| Dec 2, 2018 | Chapecoense-sc 1-0 Sao Paulo | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Sao Paulo vs Chapecoense-sc on Mar 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chapecoense-sc score 1.2 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Sao Paulo score 1.2 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense-sc | 1.2 | 1.7 | 4 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Sao Paulo | 1.2 | 1.4 | 2 | 12/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chapecoense-sc sit 20th in Serie A (11 points from 22 matches) and Sao Paulo sit 13th (27 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Sao Paulo | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 26 | 27 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 22 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 23 | 46 | 11 |
Who is out?
11 reported absence(s) for this match.
- Lucas MouraSao PauloOut(Achilles Tendon Injury)
- Lucca Marques AlencarSao PauloOut(Jaw injury)
- R. TolóiSao PauloOut(Muscle Injury)
- Bruno TubarãoChapecoense-scOut(Inactive)
- GarcezChapecoense-scOut(Thigh Injury)
- João PauloChapecoense-scOut(Health problems)
- MaxChapecoense-scDoubtful(Injury)
- Rafael CarvalheiraChapecoense-scOut(Knee Injury)
- Robert SantosChapecoense-scOut(Knee Injury)
- Victor CaetanoChapecoense-scOut(Yellow Cards)
- Y. BolasieChapecoense-scOut(Injury)
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo?
- The Footlab model makes Sao Paulo the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Chapecoense-sc.
- Where and when is Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo played?
- Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo is played on August 23, 2026 at 09:30 PM (UTC) at Arena Condá, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.