Vitoria vs Bahia: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 24Kick-off on August 23, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Manoel Barradas, Salvador, Bahia
The Footlab model makes Vitoria the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Bahia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vitoria vs Bahia?
A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate Vitoria (1,966) and Bahia (1,959).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vitoria have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Bahia have 2, 8 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Botafogo(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Flamengo(away) | 0-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense(home) | 4-0 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense(away) | 0-2 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Palmeiras(home) | 0-4 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Chapecoense-sc(away) | 3-3 | Serie A |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama(home) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Fluminense(away) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Corinthians(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Atletico-MG(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Vitoria win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Bahia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2026 | Bahia 1-1 Vitoria | Serie A |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Bahia 2-1 Vitoria | Baiano - 1 |
| Jan 25, 2026 | Vitoria 0-1 Bahia | Baiano - 1 |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Vitoria 2-1 Bahia | Serie A |
| May 18, 2025 | Bahia 2-1 Vitoria | Serie A |
| Mar 23, 2025 | Vitoria 1-1 Bahia | Baiano - 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Vitoria score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Bahia score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria | 1.5 | 1.5 | 5 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Bahia | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vitoria sit 12th in Serie A (29 points from 23 matches) and Bahia sit 6th (34 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bahia | 23 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 32 | 28 | 34 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 33 | 29 |
Who is out?
10 reported absence(s) for this match.
- AdemirBahiaDoubtful(Injury)
- Éverton RibeiroBahiaOut(Inactive)
- Léo VieiraBahiaOut(Knee Injury)
- AndersonVitoriaOut(Knee Injury)
- CamutangaVitoriaOut(Broken Leg)
- DuduVitoriaOut(Back Injury)
- EduVitoriaOut(Achilles Tendon Injury)
- NathanVitoriaOut(Knee Injury)
- RiccieliVitoriaDoubtful(Calf Injury)
- Rúben IsmaelVitoriaOut(Knee Injury)
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vitoria vs Bahia?
- The Footlab model makes Vitoria the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Bahia.
- Where and when is Vitoria vs Bahia played?
- Vitoria vs Bahia is played on August 23, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Manoel Barradas, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.