Sao Paulo vs Fluminense: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 35Kick-off on November 18, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo (Morumbi), São Paulo, São Paulo
The Footlab AI model makes Sao Paulo the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Fluminense. The most likely score is 1-1. If Sao Paulo wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sao Paulo vs Fluminense?
A very open match: only 74 Elo points separate Sao Paulo (1,841) and Fluminense (1,915).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Sao Paulo vs Fluminense
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Sao Paulo
3-4-2-1- 9J. Calleri
- 37Artur
- 16D. Bobadilla
- 12Iago
- 8Marcos Antônio
- 32Pedro Lima
- 48D. Ferreira
- 5R. Arboleda
- 35Sabino
- 2R. Tolói
- 23Rafael
Fluminense
4-2-3-1- 7Hulk
- 8Martinelli
- 17A. Canobbio
- 16Nonato
- 10PH Ganso
- 32L. Acosta
- 29J. Millán
- 13Guilherme Arana
- 3Thiago Silva
- 23Guga
- 1Fábio
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 03:15 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sao Paulo have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Fluminense have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Vitoria(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Cruzeiro(away) | 0-2 | Serie A |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Santos(home) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Internacional(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Boca Juniors(home) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Palmeiras(home) | 1-2 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Flamengo(away) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Coritiba(home) | 4-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Corinthians(away) | 3-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Platense(away) | 1-2 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Sao Paulo wins, 0 draws, 4 Fluminense wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Fluminense 2-1 Sao Paulo | Serie A |
| Nov 27, 2025 | Fluminense 6-0 Sao Paulo | Serie A |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Sao Paulo 3-1 Fluminense | Serie A |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Fluminense 2-0 Sao Paulo | Serie A |
| May 13, 2024 | Sao Paulo 2-1 Fluminense | Serie A |
| Nov 23, 2023 | Fluminense 1-0 Sao Paulo | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Fluminense vs Sao Paulo on May 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sao Paulo score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Fluminense score 1.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Paulo | 1.1 | 1.1 | 2 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
| Fluminense | 1.6 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sao Paulo sit 10th in Serie A (39 points from 30 matches) and Fluminense sit 4th (51 points from 30 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 48 | 37 | 51 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 35 | 35 | 39 |
A question about Sao Paulo vs Fluminense?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sao Paulo vs Fluminense?
- The Footlab AI model makes Sao Paulo the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Fluminense.
- Where and when is Sao Paulo vs Fluminense played?
- Sao Paulo vs Fluminense is played on November 18, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo (Morumbi), in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.