Sao Paulo vs Fluminense: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 35Kick-off on November 18, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo (Morumbi), São Paulo, São Paulo
The Footlab model makes Sao Paulo the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Fluminense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sao Paulo vs Fluminense?
A very open match: only 84 Elo points separate Sao Paulo (1,927) and Fluminense (2,011).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sao Paulo have 2 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats; Fluminense have 5, 8 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Chapecoense-sc(away) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Bolívar(home) | 3-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Coritiba(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Bolívar(away) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gremio(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Remo(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Independ. Rivadavia(away) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Palmeiras(home) | 3-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Independ. Rivadavia(home) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Botafogo(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Sao Paulo win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Fluminense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Fluminense 2-1 Sao Paulo | Serie A |
| Nov 27, 2025 | Fluminense 6-0 Sao Paulo | Serie A |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Sao Paulo 3-1 Fluminense | Serie A |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Fluminense 2-0 Sao Paulo | Serie A |
| May 13, 2024 | Sao Paulo 2-1 Fluminense | Serie A |
| Nov 23, 2023 | Fluminense 1-0 Sao Paulo | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Fluminense vs Sao Paulo on May 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sao Paulo score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Fluminense score 1.2 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Paulo | 1.1 | 1.3 | 2 | 11/15 | 6/15 |
| Fluminense | 1.2 | 1.0 | 3 | 11/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sao Paulo sit 13th in Serie A (27 points from 23 matches) and Fluminense sit 4th (41 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fluminense | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 36 | 29 | 41 |
| 13 | Sao Paulo | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 27 | 27 | 27 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sao Paulo vs Fluminense?
- The Footlab model makes Sao Paulo the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Fluminense.
- Where and when is Sao Paulo vs Fluminense played?
- Sao Paulo vs Fluminense is played on November 18, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo (Morumbi), in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.