Internacional vs Atletico-MG: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 24Kick-off on August 22, 2026 at 09:30 PM (UTC)Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul
The Footlab model makes Internacional the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Atletico-MG. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Internacional vs Atletico-MG?
A very open match: only 34 Elo points separate Internacional (1,949) and Atletico-MG (1,983).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Internacional have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Atletico-MG have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Remo(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Palmeiras(away) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Corinthians(away) | 1-2 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Corinthians(home) | 2-0 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Flamengo(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | RB Bragantino(home) | 2-2 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Gremio(home) | 3-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | RB Bragantino(away) | 1-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Remo(away) | 2-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Juventude(away) | 1-0 | Copa Do Brasil |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Internacional win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Atletico-MG win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2026 | Atletico-MG 1-0 Internacional | Serie A |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Internacional 0-0 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| Jun 13, 2025 | Atletico-MG 2-0 Internacional | Serie A |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Atletico-MG 1-3 Internacional | Serie A |
| Jun 27, 2024 | Internacional 1-2 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| Oct 1, 2023 | Internacional 0-2 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Atletico-MG vs Internacional on Mar 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Internacional score 1.5 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico-MG score 1.4 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Internacional | 1.5 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Atletico-MG | 1.4 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Internacional sit 16th in Serie A (24 points from 23 matches) and Atletico-MG sit 8th (32 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Atletico-MG | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 30 | 27 | 32 |
| 16 | Internacional | 23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 24 | 28 | 24 |
Who is out?
12 reported absence(s) for this match.
- B. ArhinInternacionalDoubtful(Hamstring Injury)
- KaykyInternacionalOut(Ankle Injury)
- Matheus BahiaInternacionalOut(Yellow Cards)
- S. RochetInternacionalOut(Lower Back Injury)
- Victor JoaoInternacionalDoubtful(Muscle Injury)
- A. PreciadoAtletico-MGOut(Yellow Cards)
- Gustavo ScarpaAtletico-MGOut(Muscle Injury)
- Igor GomesAtletico-MGDoubtful(Injury)
- ÍndioAtletico-MGOut(Knee Injury)
- Léo DuarteAtletico-MGOut(Hamstring Injury)
- LyancoAtletico-MGOut(Injury)
- Patrick SilvaAtletico-MGOut(Knee Injury)
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Internacional vs Atletico-MG?
- The Footlab model makes Internacional the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Atletico-MG.
- Where and when is Internacional vs Atletico-MG played?
- Internacional vs Atletico-MG is played on August 22, 2026 at 09:30 PM (UTC) at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.