Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise: prediction and stats
Jupiler Pro LeagueRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi
The Footlab model makes Union St. Gilloise the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Charleroi. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 19, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise starts as the favourite with a 213-point Elo edge (2,165 vs 1,952).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Charleroi have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Union St. Gilloise have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lommel United(away) | 1-0 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | OH Leuven(home) | 3-1 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Seraing United(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Lens(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Zulte Waregem(home) | 0-0 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Bodo/Glimt(away) | 2-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | KVC Westerlo(away) | 5-1 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Bodo/Glimt(home) | 3-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Club Brugge KV(away) | 1-1 | Super Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Charleroi win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Union St. Gilloise win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2026 | Union St. Gilloise 4-1 Charleroi | Cup |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Charleroi 0-0 Union St. Gilloise | Cup |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Charleroi 1-1 Union St. Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Union St. Gilloise 3-1 Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League |
| Jan 11, 2025 | Charleroi 1-2 Union St. Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 16, 2024 | Union St. Gilloise 1-0 Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League |
Last archived meeting: Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi on Feb 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Charleroi score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Union St. Gilloise score 2.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charleroi | 1.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Union St. Gilloise | 2.3 | 1.7 | 4 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Charleroi sit 3rd in Jupiler Pro League (6 points from 2 matches) and Union St. Gilloise sit 5th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Charleroi | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Union St. Gilloise | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
- The Footlab model makes Union St. Gilloise the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Charleroi.
- Where and when is Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise played?
- Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise is played on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, in the Jupiler Pro League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.