Match

Chaves vs Lusitânia Lourosa: prediction and stats

Segunda LigaRegular Season - 24Kick-off on February 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Chaves

ChavesLusitânia Lourosa

The Footlab AI model makes Chaves the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Lusitânia Lourosa. The most likely score is 1-1. If Chaves wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 4,770 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 7, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Chaves vs Lusitânia Lourosa?

A very open match: only 80 Elo points separate Chaves (1,930) and Lusitânia Lourosa (2,011).

40%26%34%
Chaves winDrawLusitânia Lourosa win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Chaves vs Lusitânia Lourosa

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Chaves

4-3-3
  1. 10André Rodrigues
  2. 30Costinha
  3. 17Roberto
  1. 19Gilberto García
  2. 42Aílson Tavares
  3. 16D. Yearwood
  1. 23Léo Alabá
  2. 34Ricardo Alves
  3. 7R. Esajas
  4. 14N. Araújo
  1. 1João Valido

Lusitânia Lourosa

4-3-3
  1. 12Arsénio
  2. 17João Santos
  3. 21Paulité
  1. 27Fabinho
  2. 20Diogo Paulo
  3. 88Miguel Teixeira
  1. 24Ricardinho
  2. 22Bruno Faria
  3. 52F. Machado
  4. 4D. Collard
  1. 29Brian Araújo

Computed on November 7, 2026 at 11:45 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chaves have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Lusitânia Lourosa have 7, 6 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Chaves
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 31, 2026Benfica B(away)1-3Segunda Liga
Oct 23, 2026Vizela(home)2-1Segunda Liga
Oct 16, 2026Os Marialvas(home)2-1Taça de Portugal
Oct 11, 2026Lusitânia Lourosa(away)1-1Segunda Liga
Oct 4, 2026Farense(away)0-4Segunda Liga
Lusitânia Lourosa
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 1, 2026Farense(home)1-1Segunda Liga
Oct 25, 2026Felgueiras 1932(away)2-2Segunda Liga
Oct 18, 2026Os Limianos(home)2-1Taça de Portugal
Oct 11, 2026Chaves(home)1-1Segunda Liga
Sep 20, 2026Madalena(away)3-1Taça de Portugal

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Chaves win, 3 draws, 0 Lusitânia Lourosa wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Lusitânia Lourosa 1-1 ChavesSegunda Liga
Jan 24, 2026Chaves 2-2 Lusitânia LourosaSegunda Liga
Aug 16, 2025Lusitânia Lourosa 2-2 ChavesSegunda Liga
Oct 20, 2024Chaves 2-0 Lusitânia LourosaTaça de Portugal

Last archived meeting: Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves on Oct 11, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Chaves score 1.2 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Lusitânia Lourosa score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Chaves1.21.9110/1510/15
Lusitânia Lourosa1.71.3410/158/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Chaves sit 15th in Segunda Liga (8 points from 9 matches) and Lusitânia Lourosa sit 3rd (19 points from 9 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
3Lusitânia Lourosa954015819
15Chaves92259188

A question about Chaves vs Lusitânia Lourosa?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Chaves vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
The Footlab AI model makes Chaves the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Lusitânia Lourosa.
Where and when is Chaves vs Lusitânia Lourosa played?
Chaves vs Lusitânia Lourosa is played on February 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, in the Segunda Liga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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