Academica vs União de Leiria: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 24Kick-off on February 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio EFAPEL, Coimbra
The Footlab model makes Academica the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for União de Leiria. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Academica vs União de Leiria?
A very open match: only 83 Elo points separate Academica (2,027) and União de Leiria (1,944).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Academica have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; União de Leiria have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Tondela(away) | 2-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Feirense(home) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chaves(away) | 4-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Caldas(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | União Santarém(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Leixoes(away) | 4-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Benfica B(home) | 1-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Vizela(away) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Las Palmas(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | AD Marco 09(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Academica win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 União de Leiria win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 12, 2024 | Academica 0-0 União de Leiria | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 15, 2023 | Academica 1-3 União de Leiria | Liga 3 |
| Sep 3, 2022 | União de Leiria 1-1 Academica | Liga 3 |
| Jan 20, 2012 | Academica 0-0 União de Leiria | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 15, 2011 | União de Leiria 1-2 Academica | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 4, 2011 | Academica 0-0 União de Leiria | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Academica vs União de Leiria on Jul 12, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Academica score 1.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; União de Leiria score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academica | 1.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| União de Leiria | 1.5 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Academica sit 1st in Segunda Liga (9 points from 3 matches) and União de Leiria sit 9th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Academica | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | União de Leiria | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Academica vs União de Leiria?
- The Footlab model makes Academica the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for União de Leiria.
- Where and when is Academica vs União de Leiria played?
- Academica vs União de Leiria is played on February 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio EFAPEL, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.