Chelmsford City vs Torquay: prediction and stats
National League - SouthNational League South - 46Kick-off on April 24, 2027 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Melbourne Stadium, Chelmsford, Essex
The Footlab model makes Chelmsford City the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Torquay. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chelmsford City vs Torquay?
A very open match: only 34 Elo points separate Chelmsford City (1,842) and Torquay (1,876).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chelmsford City have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Torquay have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Folkestone Invicta(away) | 1-1 | National League - South |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Truro City(home) | 0-0 | National League - South |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hemel Hempstead Town(away) | 1-1 | National League - South |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Eastbourne Borough(home) | 1-3 | National League - South |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Chesham United(away) | 2-0 | National League - South |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Dagenham & Redbridge(away) | 0-2 | National League - South |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Weston-super-Mare(home) | 0-0 | National League - South |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tonbridge Angels(away) | 2-1 | National League - South |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Horsham(home) | 1-1 | National League - South |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Exeter City(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Chelmsford City win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Torquay win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Torquay 0-5 Chelmsford City | National League - South |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Chelmsford City 0-2 Torquay | National League - South |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Chelmsford City 3-2 Torquay | National League - South |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Torquay 2-2 Chelmsford City | National League - South |
| Dec 23, 2023 | Chelmsford City 2-0 Torquay | National League - South |
| Sep 9, 2023 | Torquay 2-1 Chelmsford City | National League - South |
Last archived meeting: Torquay vs Chelmsford City on Feb 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chelmsford City score 1.5 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Torquay score 2.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelmsford City | 1.5 | 1.4 | 5 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Torquay | 2.2 | 1.1 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chelmsford City sit 17th in National League - South (3 points from 3 matches) and Torquay sit 13th (5 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Torquay | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| 17 | Chelmsford City | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chelmsford City vs Torquay?
- The Footlab model makes Chelmsford City the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Torquay.
- Where and when is Chelmsford City vs Torquay played?
- Chelmsford City vs Torquay is played on April 24, 2027 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Melbourne Stadium, in the National League - South.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 24, 2027Dagenham & RedbridgevsSalisbury
- Apr 24, 2027DovervsTruro City
- Apr 24, 2027MaidenheadvsWeston-super-Mare
- Apr 24, 2027Ebbsfleet UnitedvsFarnham Town
- Apr 24, 2027Hampton & RichmondvsFolkestone Invicta
- Apr 24, 2027Chesham UnitedvsMaidstone Utd
- Apr 24, 2027AFC TottonvsBraintree
- Apr 24, 2027FarnboroughvsDorking Wanderers