Chelsea vs Hull City: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 4Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stamford Bridge, London
The Footlab model makes Chelsea the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Hull City. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chelsea vs Hull City?
Chelsea starts as the favourite with a 232-point Elo edge (2,175 vs 1,943).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chelsea have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Hull City have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Fulham(away) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Johor Darul Takzim FC(away) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | AC Milan(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Juventus(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Nice(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kasımpaşa(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Rizespor(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Chelsea win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Hull City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2026 | Hull City 0-4 Chelsea | FA Cup |
| Jan 25, 2020 | Hull City 1-2 Chelsea | FA Cup |
| Feb 16, 2018 | Chelsea 4-0 Hull City | FA Cup |
| Jan 22, 2017 | Chelsea 2-0 Hull City | Premier League |
| Oct 1, 2016 | Hull City 0-2 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Mar 22, 2015 | Hull City 2-3 Chelsea | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Chelsea score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Hull City score 1.2 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Hull City | 1.2 | 0.8 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chelsea sit 6th in Premier League (3 points from 1 matches) and Hull City sit 5th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Hull City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chelsea vs Hull City?
- The Footlab model makes Chelsea the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Hull City.
- Where and when is Chelsea vs Hull City played?
- Chelsea vs Hull City is played on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stamford Bridge, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.