Chelyabinsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Central'nyj, Chelyabinsk
The Footlab model makes Shinnik Yaroslavl the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Chelyabinsk. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chelyabinsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
A very open match: only 87 Elo points separate Chelyabinsk (1,768) and Shinnik Yaroslavl (1,855).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chelyabinsk have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Shinnik Yaroslavl have 7, 7 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Leningradets(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Torpedo Moskva(home) | 0-4 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Rotor Volgograd(away) | 1-4 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Volga Ulyanovsk(away) | 2-0 | First League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Nizhny Novgorod(home) | 1-2 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Volga Ulyanovsk(away) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | FK Neftekhimik(away) | 2-0 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Arsenal Tula(home) | 2-2 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Nizhny Novgorod(away) | 0-3 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Torpedo Moskva(away) | 1-1 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Chelyabinsk win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Shinnik Yaroslavl win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Chelyabinsk 2-2 Shinnik Yaroslavl | First League |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Shinnik Yaroslavl 1-0 Chelyabinsk | First League |
Last archived meeting: Chelyabinsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl on May 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chelyabinsk score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Shinnik Yaroslavl score 1.7 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelyabinsk | 1.1 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Shinnik Yaroslavl | 1.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chelyabinsk sit 13th in First League (7 points from 7 matches) and Shinnik Yaroslavl sit 6th (12 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 12 |
| 13 | Chelyabinsk | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chelyabinsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
- The Footlab model makes Shinnik Yaroslavl the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Chelyabinsk.
- Where and when is Chelyabinsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl played?
- Chelyabinsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl is played on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Central'nyj, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.