FC Sochi vs Ural: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht, Sochi
The Footlab model makes Ural the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for FC Sochi. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Sochi vs Ural?
A very open match: only 79 Elo points separate FC Sochi (1,829) and Ural (1,908).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Sochi have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Ural have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | FK Neftekhimik(away) | 2-1 | First League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Volga Ulyanovsk(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Torpedo Moskva(away) | 2-1 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Leningradets(away) | 1-2 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Arsenal Tula(home) | 5-0 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tekstilshchik(home) | 2-0 | First League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Rotor Volgograd(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC UFA(home) | 3-0 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Ska-khabarovsk(away) | 3-0 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Leningradets(away) | 0-0 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 FC Sochi win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Ural win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2025 | FC Sochi 1-0 Ural | First League |
| Jul 14, 2024 | Ural 2-0 FC Sochi | First League |
| Apr 21, 2024 | FC Sochi 2-2 Ural | Premier League |
| Oct 22, 2023 | Ural 1-4 FC Sochi | Premier League |
| Jun 3, 2023 | Ural 1-0 FC Sochi | Premier League |
| Oct 30, 2022 | FC Sochi 2-2 Ural | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
FC Sochi score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Ural score 1.5 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Sochi | 1.5 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Ural | 1.5 | 0.6 | 8 | 3/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Sochi sit 5th in First League (13 points from 7 matches) and Ural sit 3rd (14 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ural | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 14 |
| 5 | FC Sochi | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 8 | 13 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Sochi vs Ural?
- The Footlab model makes Ural the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for FC Sochi.
- Where and when is FC Sochi vs Ural played?
- FC Sochi vs Ural is played on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.