Cherno more II vs Botev Novi Pazar: prediction and stats
Third League - NortheastNortheast - 7Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Cherno More Sports Complex, Varna
The Footlab model makes Cherno more II the favourite at 70%, against 17% for a draw and 13% for Botev Novi Pazar. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cherno more II vs Botev Novi Pazar?
Cherno more II starts as the favourite with a 262-point Elo edge (1,548 vs 1,286).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cherno more II have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Botev Novi Pazar have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ludogorets III(away) | 1-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Botev Novi Pazar(home) | 3-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 23, 2026 | Svetkavitsa 14(away) | 0-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 17, 2026 | Septemvri Tervel(home) | 0-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Spartak Varna II(away) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fratria II(away) | 6-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Cherno more II(away) | 1-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 23, 2026 | Chernomorets Balchik(home) | 0-4 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Fratria II(away) | 2-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Riltzi(home) | 1-0 | Third League - Northeast |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Cherno more II win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Botev Novi Pazar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Cherno more II 3-1 Botev Novi Pazar | Third League - Northeast |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Botev Novi Pazar 1-3 Cherno more II | Third League - Northeast |
| Mar 2, 2025 | Cherno more II 2-0 Botev Novi Pazar | Third League - Northeast |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Botev Novi Pazar 2-3 Cherno more II | Third League - Northeast |
| Mar 12, 2023 | Cherno more II 5-0 Botev Novi Pazar | Third League - Northeast |
| Sep 4, 2022 | Botev Novi Pazar 2-3 Cherno more II | Third League - Northeast |
Last archived meeting: Cherno more II vs Botev Novi Pazar on May 30, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cherno more II score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Botev Novi Pazar score 1.7 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherno more II | 1.7 | 1.5 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Botev Novi Pazar | 1.7 | 2.0 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cherno more II sit 12th in Third League - Northeast (0 points from 1 matches) and Botev Novi Pazar sit 2nd (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Botev Novi Pazar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 | Cherno more II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cherno more II vs Botev Novi Pazar?
- The Footlab model makes Cherno more II the favourite at 70%, against 17% for a draw and 13% for Botev Novi Pazar.
- Where and when is Cherno more II vs Botev Novi Pazar played?
- Cherno more II vs Botev Novi Pazar is played on September 26, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Cherno More Sports Complex, in the Third League - Northeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.