Ustrem Donchevo vs Septemvri Tervel: prediction and stats
Third League - NortheastNortheast - 7Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadion Donchevo, Donchevo
The Footlab model makes Septemvri Tervel the favourite at 71%, against 17% for a draw and 12% for Ustrem Donchevo. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ustrem Donchevo vs Septemvri Tervel?
Septemvri Tervel starts as the favourite with a 278-point Elo edge (1,720 vs 1,441).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ustrem Donchevo have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Septemvri Tervel have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Olympic Varna(home) | 3-4 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Riltzi(away) | 4-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 23, 2026 | Benkovski Isperih(home) | 3-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Chernolomets 1919(away) | 0-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Svetkavitsa Targovishte(home) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Volov Shumen(home) | 1-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 24, 2026 | Spartak Varna II(home) | 4-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 20, 2026 | Ludogorets III(home) | 0-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 17, 2026 | Cherno more II(away) | 2-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Chernomorets Balchik(home) | 0-1 | Third League - Northeast |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Ustrem Donchevo win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Septemvri Tervel win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Ustrem Donchevo 0-0 Septemvri Tervel | Third League - Northeast |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Septemvri Tervel 4-1 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Septemvri Tervel 1-0 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Ustrem Donchevo 1-4 Septemvri Tervel | Third League - Northeast |
| Mar 10, 2024 | Ustrem Donchevo 0-0 Septemvri Tervel | Third League - Northeast |
| Aug 26, 2023 | Septemvri Tervel 5-1 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
Last archived meeting: Ustrem Donchevo vs Septemvri Tervel on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ustrem Donchevo score 1.9 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Septemvri Tervel score 2.4 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ustrem Donchevo | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
| Septemvri Tervel | 2.4 | 0.5 | 10 | 2/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ustrem Donchevo sit 11th in Third League - Northeast (0 points from 1 matches) and Septemvri Tervel sit 7th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Septemvri Tervel | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Ustrem Donchevo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ustrem Donchevo vs Septemvri Tervel?
- The Footlab model makes Septemvri Tervel the favourite at 71%, against 17% for a draw and 12% for Ustrem Donchevo.
- Where and when is Ustrem Donchevo vs Septemvri Tervel played?
- Ustrem Donchevo vs Septemvri Tervel is played on September 26, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadion Donchevo, in the Third League - Northeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.