Aksakovo vs Olympic Varna: prediction and stats
Third League - NortheastNortheast - 7Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Aksakovo stadium, Aksakovo
The Footlab model makes Aksakovo the favourite at 45%, against 22% for a draw and 33% for Olympic Varna. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aksakovo vs Olympic Varna?
A very open match: only 29 Elo points separate Aksakovo (1,376) and Olympic Varna (1,405).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aksakovo have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Olympic Varna have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Septemvri Dragoevo(away) | 2-4 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Chernomorets Balchik(away) | 0-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 24, 2026 | Fratria II(home) | 3-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Riltzi(away) | 1-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Benkovski Isperih(home) | 0-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ustrem Donchevo(away) | 4-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Svetkavitsa Targovishte(away) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Dorostol(home) | 4-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Ludogorets III(away) | 0-8 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 9, 2026 | Ustrem Donchevo(home) | 1-2 | Third League - Northeast |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Aksakovo win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Olympic Varna win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Olympic Varna 0-2 Aksakovo | Third League - Northeast |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Aksakovo 0-0 Olympic Varna | Third League - Northeast |
Last archived meeting: Olympic Varna vs Aksakovo on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aksakovo score 1.5 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Olympic Varna score 1.7 and concede 2.8. The model gives a 75% probability of over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aksakovo | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Olympic Varna | 1.7 | 2.8 | 1 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aksakovo sit 14th in Third League - Northeast (0 points from 1 matches) and Olympic Varna sit 4th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Olympic Varna | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | Aksakovo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aksakovo vs Olympic Varna?
- The Footlab model makes Aksakovo the favourite at 45%, against 22% for a draw and 33% for Olympic Varna.
- Where and when is Aksakovo vs Olympic Varna played?
- Aksakovo vs Olympic Varna is played on September 26, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Aksakovo stadium, in the Third League - Northeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 75% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.