Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Nesebar: prediction and stats
Second LeagueRegular Season - 31Kick-off on May 8, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Efbet Arena, Burgas
The Footlab model makes Chernomorets 1919 Burgas the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Nesebar. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Nesebar?
A very open match: only 19 Elo points separate Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (1,689) and Nesebar (1,707).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chernomorets 1919 Burgas have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Nesebar have 12, 0 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Hebar 1918(away) | 0-1 | Second League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | CSKA Sofia II(home) | 0-1 | Second League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Vihren(away) | 1-1 | Second League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Beroe(home) | 1-0 | Second League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa(away) | 1-1 | Second League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Pirin Blagoevgrad(home) | 7-0 | Second League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sportist Svoge(away) | 1-0 | Second League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Dobrudzha(home) | 2-0 | Second League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Montana(away) | 1-3 | Second League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo(home) | 1-5 | Second League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Nesebar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2025 | Nesebar 0-3 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 6, 2023 | Nesebar 1-0 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | Third League - Southeast |
| Oct 26, 2022 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 0-1 Nesebar | Third League - Southeast |
| Apr 16, 2022 | Nesebar 1-0 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | Third League - Southeast |
| Oct 9, 2021 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 0-0 Nesebar | Third League - Southeast |
| Jul 24, 2021 | Nesebar 1-3 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Nesebar vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas on Feb 5, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas score 1.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Nesebar score 3.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 1.0 | 0.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
| Nesebar | 3.7 | 1.1 | 7 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas sit 15th in Second League (5 points from 5 matches) and Nesebar sit 4th (9 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nesebar | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 9 |
| 15 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Nesebar?
- The Footlab model makes Chernomorets 1919 Burgas the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Nesebar.
- Where and when is Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Nesebar played?
- Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Nesebar is played on May 8, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Efbet Arena, in the Second League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.