Nesebar vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas: prediction and stats
Second LeagueRegular Season - 14Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Gradski stadion, Nesebar
The Footlab model makes Nesebar the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Chernomorets 1919 Burgas. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nesebar vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas?
A very open match: only 19 Elo points separate Nesebar (1,707) and Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (1,689).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nesebar have 12 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats; Chernomorets 1919 Burgas have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Pirin Blagoevgrad(home) | 7-0 | Second League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sportist Svoge(away) | 1-0 | Second League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Dobrudzha(home) | 2-0 | Second League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Montana(away) | 1-3 | Second League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo(home) | 1-5 | Second League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Hebar 1918(away) | 0-1 | Second League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | CSKA Sofia II(home) | 0-1 | Second League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Vihren(away) | 1-1 | Second League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Beroe(home) | 1-0 | Second League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa(away) | 1-1 | Second League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Nesebar win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2025 | Nesebar 0-3 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 6, 2023 | Nesebar 1-0 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | Third League - Southeast |
| Oct 26, 2022 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 0-1 Nesebar | Third League - Southeast |
| Apr 16, 2022 | Nesebar 1-0 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | Third League - Southeast |
| Oct 9, 2021 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 0-0 Nesebar | Third League - Southeast |
| Jul 24, 2021 | Nesebar 1-3 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Nesebar vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas on Feb 5, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Nesebar score 3.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Chernomorets 1919 Burgas score 1.0 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nesebar | 3.7 | 1.1 | 7 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
| Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 1.0 | 0.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nesebar sit 4th in Second League (9 points from 5 matches) and Chernomorets 1919 Burgas sit 15th (5 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nesebar | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 9 |
| 15 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nesebar vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas?
- The Footlab model makes Nesebar the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Chernomorets 1919 Burgas.
- Where and when is Nesebar vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas played?
- Nesebar vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas is played on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Gradski stadion, in the Second League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 31, 2026Lokomotiv G. OryahovitsavsBeroe
- Oct 31, 2026MontanavsSpartak Pleven
- Oct 31, 2026DobrudzhavsFratria
- Oct 31, 2026Pirin BlagoevgradvsEtar Veliko Tarnovo
- Oct 31, 2026Yantra 2019vsHebar 1918
- Oct 31, 2026MarekvsCSKA Sofia II
- Oct 31, 2026Rilski SportistvsVihren
- Oct 31, 2026Sportist SvogevsLudogorets II