Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Rilski Sportist: prediction and stats
Second LeagueRegular Season - 17Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Efbet Arena, Burgas
The Footlab model makes Chernomorets 1919 Burgas the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Rilski Sportist. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Rilski Sportist?
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas starts as the favourite with a 107-point Elo edge (1,690 vs 1,583).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chernomorets 1919 Burgas have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Rilski Sportist have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Hebar 1918(away) | 0-1 | Second League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | CSKA Sofia II(home) | 0-1 | Second League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Vihren(away) | 1-1 | Second League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Beroe(home) | 1-0 | Second League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa(away) | 1-1 | Second League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Montana(home) | 2-1 | Second League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo(away) | 1-1 | Second League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Spartak Pleven(home) | 2-2 | Second League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Fratria(away) | 0-1 | Second League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Ludogorets II(home) | 0-1 | Second League |
How many goals should we expect?
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas score 1.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Rilski Sportist score 1.0 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 1.0 | 0.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
| Rilski Sportist | 1.0 | 1.2 | 2 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas sit 15th in Second League (5 points from 5 matches) and Rilski Sportist sit 14th (5 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Rilski Sportist | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| 15 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Rilski Sportist?
- The Footlab model makes Chernomorets 1919 Burgas the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Rilski Sportist.
- Where and when is Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Rilski Sportist played?
- Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Rilski Sportist is played on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Efbet Arena, in the Second League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.