Chesterfield vs Mansfield Town: prediction and stats
EFL TrophyGroup North - 4Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)SMH Group Stadium, Chesterfield, Derbyshire
The Footlab model makes Chesterfield the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for Mansfield Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chesterfield vs Mansfield Town?
A very open match: only 39 Elo points separate Chesterfield (1,791) and Mansfield Town (1,830).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chesterfield have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Mansfield Town have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Salford City(away) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(home) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Scunthorpe(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 14, 2026 | FC Halifax Town(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Peterborough(away) | 1-2 | League One |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Manchester City U21(home) | 1-4 | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Doncaster(home) | 2-1 | League One |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Sheffield Utd(home) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Derby(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Chesterfield win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Mansfield Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2025 | Chesterfield 0-2 Mansfield Town | League Cup |
| Apr 14, 2018 | Chesterfield 0-1 Mansfield Town | League Two |
| Nov 25, 2017 | Mansfield Town 2-2 Chesterfield | League Two |
| Mar 22, 2014 | Mansfield Town 0-0 Chesterfield | League Two |
| Oct 8, 2013 | Mansfield Town 0-1 Chesterfield | EFL Trophy |
| Sep 28, 2013 | Chesterfield 0-1 Mansfield Town | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Chesterfield vs Mansfield Town on Aug 12, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Chesterfield score 0.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Mansfield Town score 1.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield | 0.9 | 0.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
| Mansfield Town | 1.7 | 1.7 | 5 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chesterfield sit 2nd in EFL Trophy (4 points from 3 matches) and Mansfield Town sit 4th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Chesterfield | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 4 |
| 4 | Mansfield Town | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chesterfield vs Mansfield Town?
- The Footlab model makes Chesterfield the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for Mansfield Town.
- Where and when is Chesterfield vs Mansfield Town played?
- Chesterfield vs Mansfield Town is played on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at SMH Group Stadium, in the EFL Trophy.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.