Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 15Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Memorial Stadium, Bristol, Gloucestershire
The Footlab model makes Bristol Rovers the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Chesterfield. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield?
A very open match: only 37 Elo points separate Bristol Rovers (1,758) and Chesterfield (1,795).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bristol Rovers have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Chesterfield have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Newport County(home) | 5-3 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | York(away) | 2-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Peterborough(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Portsmouth(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Salford City(away) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(home) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Scunthorpe(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 14, 2026 | FC Halifax Town(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Bristol Rovers win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Chesterfield win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Bristol Rovers 2-3 Chesterfield | League Two |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Chesterfield 3-1 Bristol Rovers | League Two |
| Jul 29, 2023 | Bristol Rovers 2-0 Chesterfield | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 18, 2017 | Bristol Rovers 2-1 Chesterfield | League One |
| Nov 26, 2016 | Chesterfield 3-2 Bristol Rovers | League One |
| Feb 1, 2014 | Chesterfield 3-1 Bristol Rovers | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield on Feb 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Bristol Rovers score 2.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Chesterfield score 0.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol Rovers | 2.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Chesterfield | 0.9 | 0.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bristol Rovers sit 10th in League Two (3 points from 2 matches) and Chesterfield sit 16th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Bristol Rovers | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
| 16 | Chesterfield | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield?
- The Footlab model makes Bristol Rovers the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Chesterfield.
- Where and when is Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield played?
- Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield is played on November 14, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Memorial Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.