Chitipa United vs Moyale Barracks: prediction and stats
Super LeagueRegular Season - 20Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC)Mzuzu Stadium, Mzuzu
The Footlab model makes Chitipa United the favourite at 45%, against 32% for a draw and 22% for Moyale Barracks. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chitipa United vs Moyale Barracks?
A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate Chitipa United (1,467) and Moyale Barracks (1,498).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chitipa United have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Moyale Barracks have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Karonga United(away) | 1-1 | Super League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mitundu Baptist(home) | 1-0 | Super League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Nyasa Big Bullets(away) | 0-2 | Super League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Silver Strikers(home) | 0-0 | Super League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Ekhaya(home) | 1-0 | Super League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kamuzu Barracks(home) | 2-2 | Super League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Red Lions(away) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Be Forward Wanderers(home) | 1-1 | Super League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Blue Eagles(away) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | CIVO United(away) | 1-0 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Chitipa United win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Moyale Barracks win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Moyale Barracks 3-2 Chitipa United | Super League |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Chitipa United 2-0 Moyale Barracks | Super League |
| Jun 15, 2025 | Moyale Barracks 0-0 Chitipa United | Super League |
| Dec 4, 2024 | Chitipa United 2-0 Moyale Barracks | Super League |
| May 11, 2024 | Moyale Barracks 1-1 Chitipa United | Super League |
| Nov 5, 2023 | Moyale Barracks 4-1 Chitipa United | Super League |
Last archived meeting: Moyale Barracks vs Chitipa United on May 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chitipa United score 0.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Moyale Barracks score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 30% probability of over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chitipa United | 0.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
| Moyale Barracks | 0.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chitipa United sit 6th in Super League (20 points from 14 matches) and Moyale Barracks sit 9th (18 points from 14 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Chitipa United | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 20 |
| 9 | Moyale Barracks | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 16 | 18 |
| 9 | Moyale Barracks | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 8 |
| 13 | Chitipa United | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chitipa United vs Moyale Barracks?
- The Footlab model makes Chitipa United the favourite at 45%, against 32% for a draw and 22% for Moyale Barracks.
- Where and when is Chitipa United vs Moyale Barracks played?
- Chitipa United vs Moyale Barracks is played on November 21, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC) at Mzuzu Stadium, in the Super League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 30% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.