Chorley vs Buxton: prediction and stats
FA TrophyRound of 128Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Victory Park, Chorley, Lancashire
The Footlab AI model makes Buxton the favourite at 47%, against 23% for a draw and 30% for Chorley. The most likely score is 1-1. If Buxton wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 4,751 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 7, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chorley vs Buxton?
Buxton starts as the favourite with a 101-point Elo edge (1,867 vs 1,765).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Chorley vs Buxton
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Chorley
Not enough data to predict the Chorley lineup.
Buxton
Not enough data to predict the Buxton lineup.
Computed on November 7, 2026 at 07:06 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chorley have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Buxton have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Spennymoor Town(away) | 0-2 | National League - North |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Radcliffe(away) | 3-0 | National League - North |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Buxton(home) | 2-3 | National League - North |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Worcester City(away) | 0-1 | FA Cup |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Worcester City(home) | 1-1 | FA Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Marine(home) | 4-2 | National League - North |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Harborough Town(home) | 3-0 | National League - North |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Chorley(away) | 3-2 | National League - North |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Worksop Town(home) | 2-2 | National League - North |
| Oct 10, 2026 | King's Lynn Town(away) | 0-1 | National League - North |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Chorley win, 0 draws, 5 Buxton wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Chorley 2-3 Buxton | National League - North |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Chorley 1-2 Buxton | National League - North |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Buxton 3-2 Chorley | National League - North |
| Apr 18, 2025 | Buxton 1-0 Chorley | National League - North |
| Feb 4, 2025 | Chorley 3-0 Buxton | National League - North |
| Apr 6, 2024 | Buxton 3-1 Chorley | National League - North |
How many goals should we expect?
Chorley score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Buxton score 1.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chorley | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Buxton | 1.9 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Chorley vs Buxton?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chorley vs Buxton?
- The Footlab AI model makes Buxton the favourite at 47%, against 23% for a draw and 30% for Chorley.
- Where and when is Chorley vs Buxton played?
- Chorley vs Buxton is played on November 14, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Victory Park, in the FA Trophy.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
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