Chorley vs Buxton: prediction and stats
National League - NorthNational League North - 13Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Victory Park, Chorley, Lancashire
The Footlab AI model makes Buxton the favourite at 37%, against 26% for a draw and 37% for Chorley. The most likely score is 1-1. If Buxton wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chorley vs Buxton?
A very open match: only 47 Elo points separate Chorley (1,889) and Buxton (1,936).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Chorley vs Buxton
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Chorley
Not enough data to predict the Chorley lineup.
Buxton
Not enough data to predict the Buxton lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 12:09 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chorley have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Buxton have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | AFC Telford United(home) | 2-1 | National League - North |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Barton Town Old Boys(away) | 4-1 | FA Cup |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Spalding United(home) | 2-1 | National League - North |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Rylands(away) | 1-0 | FA Cup |
| Sep 12, 2026 | King's Lynn Town(away) | 0-2 | National League - North |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | King's Lynn Town(away) | 0-1 | National League - North |
| Oct 3, 2026 | South Shields(home) | 0-2 | FA Cup |
| Sep 26, 2026 | South Shields(away) | 0-4 | National League - North |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ashton United(home) | 1-0 | FA Cup |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Chester(home) | 3-1 | National League - North |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Chorley wins, 0 draws, 4 Buxton wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Chorley 1-2 Buxton | National League - North |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Buxton 3-2 Chorley | National League - North |
| Apr 18, 2025 | Buxton 1-0 Chorley | National League - North |
| Feb 4, 2025 | Chorley 3-0 Buxton | National League - North |
| Apr 6, 2024 | Buxton 3-1 Chorley | National League - North |
| Dec 12, 2023 | Chorley 3-2 Buxton | National League - North |
How many goals should we expect?
Chorley score 1.6 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Buxton score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chorley | 1.6 | 1.6 | 2 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Buxton | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chorley sit 9th in National League - North (17 points from 11 matches) and Buxton sit 10th (16 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Chorley | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 17 |
| 10 | Buxton | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 19 | 16 |
A question about Chorley vs Buxton?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chorley vs Buxton?
- The Footlab AI model makes Buxton the favourite at 37%, against 26% for a draw and 37% for Chorley.
- Where and when is Chorley vs Buxton played?
- Chorley vs Buxton is played on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Victory Park, in the National League - North.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 24, 2026MacclesfieldvsHereford
- Oct 24, 2026AFC Telford UnitedvsHebburn Town
- Oct 24, 2026Brackley TownvsRadcliffe
- Oct 24, 2026MarinevsOxford City
- Oct 24, 2026Hednesford TownvsSpalding United
- Oct 24, 2026Merthyr TownvsMorecambe
- Oct 24, 2026Scarborough AthleticvsBedford Town
- Oct 24, 2026South ShieldsvsChester