Cobreloa vs San Marcos de Arica: prediction and stats
Primera BRegular Season - 23Kick-off on September 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Zorros del Desierto, Calama
The Footlab model makes Cobreloa the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for San Marcos de Arica. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cobreloa vs San Marcos de Arica?
A very open match: only 75 Elo points separate Cobreloa (1,706) and San Marcos de Arica (1,631).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cobreloa have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; San Marcos de Arica have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Union Espanola(home) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Union San Felipe(away) | 1-0 | Primera B |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Magallanes(away) | 2-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Deportes Iquique(home) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Curico Unido(away) | 0-0 | Primera B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rangers de Talca(home) | 1-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Union Espanola(away) | 1-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Union San Felipe(home) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Santiago Wanderers(away) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Coquimbo Unido(away) | 0-1 | Copa Chile |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Cobreloa win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 San Marcos de Arica win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | San Marcos de Arica 2-1 Cobreloa | Primera B |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Cobreloa 3-1 San Marcos de Arica | Primera B |
| Nov 26, 2025 | San Marcos de Arica 2-1 Cobreloa | Primera B |
| Jul 19, 2025 | Cobreloa 2-0 San Marcos de Arica | Primera B |
| Mar 1, 2025 | San Marcos de Arica 1-1 Cobreloa | Primera B |
| Jun 29, 2024 | Cobreloa 0-0 San Marcos de Arica | Copa Chile |
Last archived meeting: San Marcos de Arica vs Cobreloa on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cobreloa score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; San Marcos de Arica score 0.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cobreloa | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| San Marcos de Arica | 0.9 | 1.4 | 2 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cobreloa sit 1st in Primera B (38 points from 21 matches) and San Marcos de Arica sit 8th (30 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cobreloa | 21 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 38 | 23 | 38 |
| 8 | San Marcos de Arica | 21 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 25 | 18 | 30 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cobreloa vs San Marcos de Arica?
- The Footlab model makes Cobreloa the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for San Marcos de Arica.
- Where and when is Cobreloa vs San Marcos de Arica played?
- Cobreloa vs San Marcos de Arica is played on September 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Zorros del Desierto, in the Primera B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.