Union San Felipe vs Deportes Santa Cruz: prediction and stats
Primera BRegular Season - 23Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de San Felipe, San Felipe
The Footlab model makes Union San Felipe the favourite at 41%, against 31% for a draw and 28% for Deportes Santa Cruz. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Union San Felipe vs Deportes Santa Cruz?
A very open match: only 26 Elo points separate Union San Felipe (1,551) and Deportes Santa Cruz (1,577).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Union San Felipe have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Deportes Santa Cruz have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Curico Unido(away) | 0-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cobreloa(home) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 13, 2026 | San Marcos de Arica(away) | 1-0 | Primera B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Recoleta(home) | 0-0 | Primera B |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Universidad de Chile(home) | 0-1 | Copa Chile |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Magallanes(away) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 17, 2026 | San Luis(home) | 0-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Curico Unido(away) | 2-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | D. Puerto Montt(home) | 0-0 | Primera B |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Santiago Wanderers(home) | 1-3 | Primera B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Union San Felipe win(s), 4 draw(s), 0 Deportes Santa Cruz win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Deportes Santa Cruz 1-3 Union San Felipe | Primera B |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Union San Felipe 0-0 Deportes Santa Cruz | Primera B |
| Jun 1, 2025 | Deportes Santa Cruz 1-1 Union San Felipe | Primera B |
| Aug 3, 2024 | Union San Felipe 1-1 Deportes Santa Cruz | Primera B |
| Mar 23, 2024 | Deportes Santa Cruz 0-2 Union San Felipe | Primera B |
| Sep 10, 2023 | Union San Felipe 0-0 Deportes Santa Cruz | Primera B |
Last archived meeting: Deportes Santa Cruz vs Union San Felipe on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Union San Felipe score 0.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Deportes Santa Cruz score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union San Felipe | 0.7 | 1.6 | 4 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Deportes Santa Cruz | 1.0 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Union San Felipe sit 14th in Primera B (20 points from 21 matches) and Deportes Santa Cruz sit 15th (16 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Union San Felipe | 21 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 37 | 20 |
| 15 | Deportes Santa Cruz | 21 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 24 | 37 | 16 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Union San Felipe vs Deportes Santa Cruz?
- The Footlab model makes Union San Felipe the favourite at 41%, against 31% for a draw and 28% for Deportes Santa Cruz.
- Where and when is Union San Felipe vs Deportes Santa Cruz played?
- Union San Felipe vs Deportes Santa Cruz is played on August 29, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de San Felipe, in the Primera B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.