Colwyn Bay vs Caernarfon Town: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 22Kick-off on January 1, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Four Crosses Construction Arena, Bae Colwyn, Conwy
The Footlab model makes Colwyn Bay the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Caernarfon Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Colwyn Bay vs Caernarfon Town?
A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate Colwyn Bay (1,887) and Caernarfon Town (1,914).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Colwyn Bay have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Caernarfon Town have 9, 0 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Airbus UK(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Caernarfon Town(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Ammanford AFC(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Trefelin(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Bootle(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Trefelin(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Colwyn Bay(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Penybont(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | GAP Connah S Quay FC(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(away) | 0-5 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Colwyn Bay win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Caernarfon Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Caernarfon Town 3-0 Colwyn Bay | Premier League |
| Apr 3, 2026 | Colwyn Bay 0-2 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Caernarfon Town 3-0 Colwyn Bay | Premier League |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Caernarfon Town 4-1 Colwyn Bay | Welsh Cup |
| Dec 27, 2025 | Caernarfon Town 1-2 Colwyn Bay | Premier League |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Colwyn Bay 1-0 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Caernarfon Town vs Colwyn Bay on Aug 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Colwyn Bay score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Caernarfon Town score 1.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colwyn Bay | 1.3 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Caernarfon Town | 1.7 | 1.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Colwyn Bay sit 9th in Premier League (7 points from 4 matches) and Caernarfon Town sit 6th (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Caernarfon Town | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | Colwyn Bay | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Colwyn Bay vs Caernarfon Town?
- The Footlab model makes Colwyn Bay the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Caernarfon Town.
- Where and when is Colwyn Bay vs Caernarfon Town played?
- Colwyn Bay vs Caernarfon Town is played on January 1, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Four Crosses Construction Arena, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.