Colwyn Bay vs Caernarfon Town: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 22Kick-off on January 1, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Four Crosses Construction Arena, Bae Colwyn, Conwy
The Footlab AI model makes Caernarfon Town the favourite at 38%, against 24% for a draw and 38% for Colwyn Bay. The most likely score is 1-1. If Caernarfon Town wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 4,601 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 6, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Colwyn Bay vs Caernarfon Town?
A very open match: only 26 Elo points separate Colwyn Bay (1,905) and Caernarfon Town (1,930).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Colwyn Bay vs Caernarfon Town
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Colwyn Bay
4-3-3- 11J. Davies
- 7J. Kenny
- 9A. Davies
- 22D. Poole
- 8C. Bratley
- 16J. Williams
- 4N. Peate
- 5L. Sirrell
- 3S. Hart
- 2D. Roberts
- 1M. Halstead
Caernarfon Town
4-3-3- 9Z. Clarke
- 10O. Evans
- 11A. Cieślewicz
- 6J. Canavan
- 14N. Edwards
- 19S. Bradley
- 16B. Nash
- 27R. Sears
- 23C. Marriott
- 4J. Piggott
- 1C. Roberts
Computed on November 6, 2026 at 09:45 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Colwyn Bay have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Caernarfon Town have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Cambrian & Clydach(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Cardiff MET(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Buckley Town(away) | 2-2 | Welsh Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Flint Town United(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Briton Ferry(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Airbus UK(away) | 2-3 | Premier League |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Briton Ferry(home) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Flint Town United(away) | 3-1 | Welsh Cup |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Haverfordwest County AFC(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Barry Town(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Colwyn Bay wins, 0 draws, 4 Caernarfon Town wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Caernarfon Town 3-0 Colwyn Bay | Premier League |
| Apr 3, 2026 | Colwyn Bay 0-2 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Caernarfon Town 3-0 Colwyn Bay | Premier League |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Caernarfon Town 4-1 Colwyn Bay | Welsh Cup |
| Dec 27, 2025 | Caernarfon Town 1-2 Colwyn Bay | Premier League |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Colwyn Bay 1-0 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Caernarfon Town vs Colwyn Bay on Aug 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Colwyn Bay score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Caernarfon Town score 2.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colwyn Bay | 1.7 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Caernarfon Town | 2.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Colwyn Bay sit 5th in Premier League (29 points from 15 matches) and Caernarfon Town sit 4th (29 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Caernarfon Town | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 42 | 19 | 29 |
| 5 | Colwyn Bay | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 17 | 29 |
A question about Colwyn Bay vs Caernarfon Town?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Colwyn Bay vs Caernarfon Town?
- The Footlab AI model makes Caernarfon Town the favourite at 38%, against 24% for a draw and 38% for Colwyn Bay.
- Where and when is Colwyn Bay vs Caernarfon Town played?
- Colwyn Bay vs Caernarfon Town is played on January 1, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Four Crosses Construction Arena, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.