Match

Comercial MS vs Operario Ferroviario: prediction and stats

Sul-MatogrossenseMatchday 1Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Estadual Jacques da Luz, Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul

Comercial MSOperario Ferroviario

The Footlab AI model makes Operario Ferroviario the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Comercial MS. The most likely score is 1-1. If Operario Ferroviario wins, the most likely score is 0-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 5,715 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Comercial MS vs Operario Ferroviario?

Operario Ferroviario starts as the favourite with a 173-point Elo edge (1,551 vs 1,379).

32%27%41%
Comercial MS winDrawOperario Ferroviario win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Comercial MS vs Operario Ferroviario

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Comercial MS

4-3-3
  1. VValderlei Saldanha Araújo
  2. UUelison
  3. NNilson Diego Ferrerra
  1. LLucas Romeiro Alves
  2. AAnderson Ferreira Gibran
  3. SSousa
  1. DDavid Lopes
  2. LLeonardo
  3. JJeferson
  4. FFabricio Lopes de Souza
  1. AAdailson Martins

Operario Ferroviario

4-3-3
  1. 11Roger
  2. 10Robinho
  3. 27A. Manoel
  1. 8Matheus Galdezani
  2. 22Leylon
  3. 5Jonas
  1. 2Gabriel Bitencourt da Silva
  2. 15Titi
  3. 3Jonilson
  4. 16Mateus Petri
  1. 1Lucas

Computed on November 14, 2026 at 02:15 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Comercial MS have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Operario Ferroviario have 4, 5 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Comercial MS
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Mar 19, 2023Operario Ferroviario(away)0-1Sul-Matogrossense
Mar 11, 2023Costa Rica (home)2-2Sul-Matogrossense
Mar 2, 2023Chapadão(home)0-1Sul-Matogrossense
Feb 26, 2023Coxim(away)0-0Sul-Matogrossense
Feb 18, 2023Chapadão(away)1-2Sul-Matogrossense
Operario Ferroviario
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Jun 14, 2026Ipatinga(away)1-2Serie D
May 31, 2026CRAC(home)2-0Serie D
May 23, 2026ABECAT Ouvidorense(away)0-2Serie D
May 16, 2026Ivinhema(home)2-0Serie D
May 9, 2026Uberlandia(home)1-2Serie D

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Comercial MS wins, 4 draws, 2 Operario Ferroviario wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 19, 2023Operario Ferroviario 1-0 Comercial MSSul-Matogrossense
Jan 29, 2023Comercial MS 1-3 Operario FerroviarioSul-Matogrossense
Mar 6, 2022Comercial MS 1-1 Operario FerroviarioSul-Matogrossense
Feb 6, 2022Operario Ferroviario 0-0 Comercial MSSul-Matogrossense
May 13, 2021Operario Ferroviario 1-1 Comercial MSSul-Matogrossense
Apr 25, 2021Comercial MS 0-0 Operario FerroviarioSul-Matogrossense

Last archived meeting: Operario Ferroviario vs Comercial MS on Mar 19, 2023

How many goals should we expect?

Comercial MS score 0.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Operario Ferroviario score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Comercial MS0.91.527/157/15
Operario Ferroviario1.21.539/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
2Operario Ferroviario945014517

A question about Comercial MS vs Operario Ferroviario?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Comercial MS vs Operario Ferroviario?
The Footlab AI model makes Operario Ferroviario the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Comercial MS.
Where and when is Comercial MS vs Operario Ferroviario played?
Comercial MS vs Operario Ferroviario is played on January 17, 2027 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Estadual Jacques da Luz, in the Sul-Matogrossense.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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