Covadonga vs Astur: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 11Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal, Oviedo
The Footlab AI model makes Covadonga the favourite at 82%, against 12% for a draw and 6% for Astur. The most likely score is 3-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Covadonga vs Astur?
Covadonga starts as the favourite with a 223-point Elo edge (1,870 vs 1,647).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Covadonga vs Astur
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Covadonga
Not enough data to predict the Covadonga lineup.
Astur
4-3-3- 9Marcos Iglesias
- 17Cristian Alonso Garcia
- 6Andrés Vicente Barrera Alvarado
- 21Javier Alonso González
- 8Carlos González Lorenzo
- 7Aser Benjamin Martin Lopez
- 14Santi Ramos
- 4Román LLavona Alvarez
- 5Miguel Astorgano Dominguez
- 20Diego Mon
- 1Sergio Delgado
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 12:55 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Covadonga have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Astur have 1, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | San Martín(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Siero(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Colunga(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Caudal(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Langreo(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Gijón Industrial(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Mosconia(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | San Martín(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Siero(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Colunga(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Covadonga score 2.4 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Astur score 1.0 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 77% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Covadonga | 2.4 | 1.2 | 6 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
| Astur | 1.0 | 1.8 | 2 | 4/8 | 5/8 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Covadonga sit 1st in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 (13 points from 5 matches) and Astur sit 17th (2 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Covadonga | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 13 |
| 17 | Astur | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 2 |
A question about Covadonga vs Astur?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Covadonga vs Astur?
- The Footlab AI model makes Covadonga the favourite at 82%, against 12% for a draw and 6% for Astur.
- Where and when is Covadonga vs Astur played?
- Covadonga vs Astur is played on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 77% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.