Caudal vs Colunga: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 11Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Hermanos Antuña, Mieres del Camino
The Footlab model makes Caudal the favourite at 73%, against 17% for a draw and 10% for Colunga. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caudal vs Colunga?
Caudal starts as the favourite with a 244-point Elo edge (1,903 vs 1,660).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caudal have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Colunga have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2026 | Atlético Central(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Atlético Central(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Covadonga(away) | 4-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 31, 2026 | Covadonga(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 24, 2026 | Sporting Gijón II(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Gijón Industrial(away) | 2-6 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 3, 2026 | Praviano(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Lenense(away) | 3-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | San Martín(home) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Covadonga(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Caudal win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Colunga win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | Colunga 0-1 Caudal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Caudal 2-0 Colunga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 4, 2025 | Colunga 0-2 Caudal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Caudal 2-0 Colunga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 14, 2024 | Caudal 0-0 Colunga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Nov 26, 2023 | Colunga 1-0 Caudal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Caudal score 1.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Colunga score 1.0 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caudal | 1.7 | 0.9 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Colunga | 1.0 | 1.8 | 4 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Caudal sit 4th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 (66 points from 34 matches) and Colunga sit 11th (40 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Caudal | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 59 | 39 | 66 |
| 11 | Colunga | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 56 | 40 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caudal vs Colunga?
- The Footlab model makes Caudal the favourite at 73%, against 17% for a draw and 10% for Colunga.
- Where and when is Caudal vs Colunga played?
- Caudal vs Colunga is played on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Hermanos Antuña, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.