Covadonga vs Sporting Gijón II: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 16Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal, Oviedo
The Footlab AI model makes Covadonga the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Sporting Gijón II. The most likely score is 1-1. If Covadonga wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,876 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Covadonga vs Sporting Gijón II?
On Elo ratings, Covadonga has 1,959 points and Sporting Gijón II 1,964.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Covadonga vs Sporting Gijón II
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Covadonga
Not enough data to predict the Covadonga lineup.
Sporting Gijón II
Not enough data to predict the Sporting Gijón II lineup.
Computed on October 20, 2026 at 05:34 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Covadonga have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Sporting Gijón II have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Mosconia(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | San Martín(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Siero(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Colunga(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Caudal(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Colunga(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Caudal(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Langreo(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Avilés Stadium(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lealtad(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Covadonga wins, 2 draws, 2 Sporting Gijón II wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Covadonga 5-0 Sporting Gijón II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Sporting Gijón II 1-1 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 25, 2025 | Covadonga 0-1 Sporting Gijón II | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| May 18, 2025 | Sporting Gijón II 2-0 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Sporting Gijón II 0-2 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Covadonga 0-0 Sporting Gijón II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: Covadonga vs Sporting Gijón II on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Covadonga score 2.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Sporting Gijón II score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Covadonga | 2.5 | 1.2 | 6 | 8/15 | 13/15 |
| Sporting Gijón II | 1.7 | 0.9 | 6 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Covadonga sit 2nd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 (16 points from 7 matches) and Sporting Gijón II sit 1st (17 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Gijón II | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 17 |
| 2 | Covadonga | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 8 | 16 |
A question about Covadonga vs Sporting Gijón II?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Covadonga vs Sporting Gijón II?
- The Footlab AI model makes Covadonga the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Sporting Gijón II.
- Where and when is Covadonga vs Sporting Gijón II played?
- Covadonga vs Sporting Gijón II is played on December 20, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.