Criciuma vs Avai: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 30Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Heriberto Hülse, Criciúma, Santa Catarina
The Footlab model makes Criciuma the favourite at 47%, against 29% for a draw and 24% for Avai. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Criciuma vs Avai?
A very open match: only 70 Elo points separate Criciuma (1,907) and Avai (1,837).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Criciuma have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Avai have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Fortaleza EC(home) | 0-2 | Serie B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Botafogo SP(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Goias(home) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 0-2 | Serie B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Nautico Recife(home) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Ponte Preta(away) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Sport Recife(home) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Operario-PR(away) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 11, 2026 | CRB(home) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Juventude(away) | 0-1 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Criciuma win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Avai win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Avai 1-2 Criciuma | Serie B |
| Jan 11, 2026 | Criciuma 2-1 Avai | Catarinense - 1 |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Avai 1-1 Criciuma | Serie B |
| Jun 27, 2025 | Criciuma 1-2 Avai | Serie B |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Avai 0-3 Criciuma | Catarinense - 1 |
| Feb 12, 2024 | Avai 2-3 Criciuma | Catarinense - 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Criciuma score 1.0 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Avai score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Criciuma | 1.0 | 0.6 | 8 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
| Avai | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Criciuma sit 1st in Serie B (44 points from 24 matches) and Avai sit 16th (29 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Criciuma | 24 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 25 | 17 | 44 |
| 16 | Avai | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 30 | 29 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Criciuma vs Avai?
- The Footlab model makes Criciuma the favourite at 47%, against 29% for a draw and 24% for Avai.
- Where and when is Criciuma vs Avai played?
- Criciuma vs Avai is played on September 26, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Heriberto Hülse, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.