Nautico Recife vs Sport Recife: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 30Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho, Recife, Pernambuco
The Footlab model makes Nautico Recife the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Sport Recife. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nautico Recife vs Sport Recife?
A very open match: only 26 Elo points separate Nautico Recife (1,856) and Sport Recife (1,882).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nautico Recife have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Sport Recife have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | São Bernardo(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Ceara(home) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ponte Preta(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Atletico Goianiense(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Criciuma(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | America Mineiro(home) | 3-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Avai(away) | 1-2 | Serie B |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Londrina(home) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Vila Nova(away) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Cuiaba(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Nautico Recife win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Sport Recife win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Sport Recife 2-0 Nautico Recife | Serie B |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Nautico Recife 0-3 Sport Recife | Pernambucano - 1 |
| Mar 1, 2026 | Sport Recife 3-3 Nautico Recife | Pernambucano - 1 |
| Jan 18, 2026 | Nautico Recife 4-0 Sport Recife | Pernambucano - 1 |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Sport Recife 1-2 Nautico Recife | Pernambucano - 1 |
| Apr 6, 2024 | Sport Recife 0-0 Nautico Recife | Pernambucano - 1 |
Last archived meeting: Sport Recife vs Nautico Recife on May 30, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nautico Recife score 0.9 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Sport Recife score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nautico Recife | 0.9 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
| Sport Recife | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nautico Recife sit 15th in Serie B (31 points from 24 matches) and Sport Recife sit 6th (38 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Sport Recife | 24 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 32 | 22 | 38 |
| 15 | Nautico Recife | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 28 | 27 | 31 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nautico Recife vs Sport Recife?
- The Footlab model makes Nautico Recife the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Sport Recife.
- Where and when is Nautico Recife vs Sport Recife played?
- Nautico Recife vs Sport Recife is played on September 26, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.