Fortaleza EC vs Athletic Club: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 30Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Fortaleza, Ceará
The Footlab model makes Fortaleza EC the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Athletic Club. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fortaleza EC vs Athletic Club?
Fortaleza EC starts as the favourite with a 130-point Elo edge (1,942 vs 1,812).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fortaleza EC have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Athletic Club have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Criciuma(away) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | São Bernardo(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Juventude(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cuiaba(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Palmeiras(home) | 3-2 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Novorizontino(home) | 1-4 | Serie B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | CRB(home) | 0-2 | Serie B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | America Mineiro(away) | 3-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Criciuma(home) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Ponte Preta(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Fortaleza EC win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Athletic Club win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Athletic Club 1-0 Fortaleza EC | Serie B |
Last archived meeting: Athletic Club vs Fortaleza EC on May 30, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Fortaleza EC score 1.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Athletic Club score 1.0 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortaleza EC | 1.1 | 1.0 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Athletic Club | 1.0 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fortaleza EC sit 5th in Serie B (40 points from 24 matches) and Athletic Club sit 9th (34 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Fortaleza EC | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 27 | 21 | 40 |
| 9 | Athletic Club | 24 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 25 | 25 | 34 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fortaleza EC vs Athletic Club?
- The Footlab model makes Fortaleza EC the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Athletic Club.
- Where and when is Fortaleza EC vs Athletic Club played?
- Fortaleza EC vs Athletic Club is played on September 26, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.