Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 26Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais
The Footlab model makes Cruzeiro the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Atletico Paranaense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense?
A very open match: only 39 Elo points separate Cruzeiro (2,026) and Atletico Paranaense (1,987).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cruzeiro have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Atletico Paranaense have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Flamengo(away) | 1-2 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Corinthians(away) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Flamengo(home) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Mirassol(home) | 3-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Chapecoense-sc(home) | 2-0 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | RB Bragantino(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Santos(away) | 2-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Vitoria(away) | 0-4 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Vitoria(home) | 2-0 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Corinthians(away) | 0-0 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Cruzeiro win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Atletico Paranaense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense 2-1 Cruzeiro | Serie A |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Atletico Paranaense 3-0 Cruzeiro | Serie A |
| Jun 26, 2024 | Cruzeiro 2-0 Atletico Paranaense | Serie A |
| Nov 30, 2023 | Cruzeiro 1-1 Atletico Paranaense | Serie A |
| Jul 29, 2023 | Atletico Paranaense 3-3 Cruzeiro | Serie A |
| Nov 7, 2019 | Atletico Paranaense 0-0 Cruzeiro | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Atletico Paranaense vs Cruzeiro on Mar 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cruzeiro score 1.5 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico Paranaense score 1.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro | 1.5 | 0.7 | 5 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Atletico Paranaense | 1.1 | 0.7 | 8 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cruzeiro sit 5th in Serie A (36 points from 23 matches) and Atletico Paranaense sit 3rd (41 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 20 | 41 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 32 | 32 | 36 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense?
- The Footlab model makes Cruzeiro the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Atletico Paranaense.
- Where and when is Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense played?
- Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense is played on September 6, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.