Sao Paulo vs Atletico-MG: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 26Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo (Morumbi), São Paulo, São Paulo
The Footlab model makes Sao Paulo the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Atletico-MG. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sao Paulo vs Atletico-MG?
A very open match: only 43 Elo points separate Sao Paulo (1,939) and Atletico-MG (1,983).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sao Paulo have 2 wins, 7 draws and 6 defeats; Atletico-MG have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Bolívar(home) | 3-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Coritiba(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Bolívar(away) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gremio(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Flamengo(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | RB Bragantino(home) | 2-2 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Gremio(home) | 3-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | RB Bragantino(away) | 1-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Remo(away) | 2-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Juventude(away) | 1-0 | Copa Do Brasil |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Sao Paulo win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Atletico-MG win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | Atletico-MG 1-0 Sao Paulo | Serie A |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Sao Paulo 2-0 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Atletico-MG 0-0 Sao Paulo | Serie A |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Sao Paulo 2-2 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| Sep 13, 2024 | Atletico-MG 0-0 Sao Paulo | Copa Do Brasil |
| Aug 29, 2024 | Sao Paulo 0-1 Atletico-MG | Copa Do Brasil |
Last archived meeting: Atletico-MG vs Sao Paulo on Mar 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sao Paulo score 1.2 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico-MG score 1.4 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Paulo | 1.2 | 1.4 | 2 | 12/15 | 7/15 |
| Atletico-MG | 1.4 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sao Paulo sit 13th in Serie A (27 points from 22 matches) and Atletico-MG sit 8th (32 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Atletico-MG | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 30 | 27 | 32 |
| 13 | Sao Paulo | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 26 | 27 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sao Paulo vs Atletico-MG?
- The Footlab model makes Sao Paulo the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Atletico-MG.
- Where and when is Sao Paulo vs Atletico-MG played?
- Sao Paulo vs Atletico-MG is played on September 6, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo (Morumbi), in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.