Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 35Kick-off on November 18, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais
The Footlab model makes Cruzeiro the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Palmeiras. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras?
A very open match: only 84 Elo points separate Cruzeiro (2,038) and Palmeiras (2,122).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cruzeiro have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Palmeiras have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Flamengo(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Flamengo(away) | 1-2 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Corinthians(away) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Flamengo(home) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Mirassol(home) | 3-1 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama(home) | 4-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Cerro Porteno(away) | 1-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Fluminense(away) | 2-3 | Serie A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Cerro Porteno(home) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Internacional(home) | 0-0 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Cruzeiro win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Palmeiras win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Palmeiras 1-1 Cruzeiro | Serie A |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Palmeiras 0-0 Cruzeiro | Serie A |
| Jun 1, 2025 | Cruzeiro 2-1 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| Dec 5, 2024 | Cruzeiro 1-2 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| Jul 21, 2024 | Palmeiras 2-0 Cruzeiro | Serie A |
| Dec 7, 2023 | Cruzeiro 1-1 Palmeiras | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro on May 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cruzeiro score 1.5 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Palmeiras score 2.0 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro | 1.5 | 0.8 | 4 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Palmeiras | 2.0 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cruzeiro sit 5th in Serie A (39 points from 24 matches) and Palmeiras sit 1st (51 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 44 | 20 | 51 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 34 | 33 | 39 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras?
- The Footlab model makes Cruzeiro the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Palmeiras.
- Where and when is Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras played?
- Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras is played on November 18, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.