Cuiaba vs Nautico Recife: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 29Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Arena Pantanal, Cuiabá, Mato Grosso
The Footlab model makes Nautico Recife the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Cuiaba. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cuiaba vs Nautico Recife?
A very open match: only 39 Elo points separate Cuiaba (1,817) and Nautico Recife (1,856).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cuiaba have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Nautico Recife have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Goias(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Operario-PR(home) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ceara(away) | 3-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Fortaleza EC(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Sport Recife(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | São Bernardo(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Ceara(home) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ponte Preta(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Atletico Goianiense(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Criciuma(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Cuiaba win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Nautico Recife win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | Nautico Recife 1-0 Cuiaba | Serie B |
| Dec 23, 2020 | Nautico Recife 2-0 Cuiaba | Serie B |
| Sep 30, 2020 | Cuiaba 1-0 Nautico Recife | Serie B |
| Mar 15, 2018 | Cuiaba 0-1 Nautico Recife | Copa Do Brasil |
| Feb 28, 2018 | Nautico Recife 2-1 Cuiaba | Copa Do Brasil |
Last archived meeting: Nautico Recife vs Cuiaba on May 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cuiaba score 1.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Nautico Recife score 0.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuiaba | 1.1 | 0.9 | 4 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
| Nautico Recife | 0.9 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cuiaba sit 12th in Serie B (33 points from 24 matches) and Nautico Recife sit 15th (31 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Cuiaba | 24 | 7 | 12 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 33 |
| 15 | Nautico Recife | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 28 | 27 | 31 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cuiaba vs Nautico Recife?
- The Footlab model makes Nautico Recife the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Cuiaba.
- Where and when is Cuiaba vs Nautico Recife played?
- Cuiaba vs Nautico Recife is played on September 19, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Arena Pantanal, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.