Vila Nova vs America Mineiro: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 29Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga, Goiânia, Goiás
The Footlab model makes Vila Nova the favourite at 60%, against 25% for a draw and 15% for America Mineiro. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vila Nova vs America Mineiro?
Vila Nova starts as the favourite with a 140-point Elo edge (1,873 vs 1,733).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vila Nova have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; America Mineiro have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Operario-PR(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Ponte Preta(home) | 6-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atletico Goianiense(away) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sport Recife(home) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 27, 2026 | CRB(away) | 0-2 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Novorizontino(away) | 0-3 | Serie B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 1-3 | Serie B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Botafogo SP(away) | 1-2 | Serie B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Goias(home) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Avai(away) | 1-2 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Vila Nova win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 America Mineiro win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | America Mineiro 1-2 Vila Nova | Serie B |
| Oct 9, 2025 | America Mineiro 1-1 Vila Nova | Serie B |
| Jun 13, 2025 | Vila Nova 0-3 America Mineiro | Serie B |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Vila Nova 1-0 America Mineiro | Serie B |
| May 9, 2024 | America Mineiro 3-1 Vila Nova | Serie B |
| Oct 15, 2019 | America Mineiro 2-0 Vila Nova | Serie B |
Last archived meeting: America Mineiro vs Vila Nova on May 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Vila Nova score 1.4 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; America Mineiro score 0.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vila Nova | 1.4 | 1.0 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| America Mineiro | 0.8 | 1.5 | 2 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vila Nova sit 3rd in Serie B (41 points from 24 matches) and America Mineiro sit 19th (11 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Vila Nova | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 35 | 25 | 41 |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 23 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 39 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vila Nova vs America Mineiro?
- The Footlab model makes Vila Nova the favourite at 60%, against 25% for a draw and 15% for America Mineiro.
- Where and when is Vila Nova vs America Mineiro played?
- Vila Nova vs America Mineiro is played on September 19, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.