Cultural Leonesa vs Mérida AD: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 2Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Reino de León, León
The Footlab model makes Cultural Leonesa the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Mérida AD. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cultural Leonesa vs Mérida AD?
A very open match: only 36 Elo points separate Cultural Leonesa (1,837) and Mérida AD (1,873).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cultural Leonesa have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Mérida AD have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Atlético Astorga(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Salamanca UDS(home) | 5-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Burgos(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Real Avilés(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Athletic Club II(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Alcorcon(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Leganes(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Al-Nassr(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Benfica B(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Osasuna II(away) | 2-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Cultural Leonesa win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Mérida AD win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 23, 2023 | Mérida AD 3-1 Cultural Leonesa | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Jan 15, 2023 | Cultural Leonesa 2-0 Mérida AD | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Mérida AD vs Cultural Leonesa on Apr 23, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Cultural Leonesa score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Mérida AD score 0.9 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cultural Leonesa | 1.1 | 1.2 | 3 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Mérida AD | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mérida AD | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 47 | 53 | 52 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cultural Leonesa vs Mérida AD?
- The Footlab model makes Cultural Leonesa the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Mérida AD.
- Where and when is Cultural Leonesa vs Mérida AD played?
- Cultural Leonesa vs Mérida AD is played on September 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Reino de León, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.