Match

Mérida AD vs Athletic Club II: prediction and stats

Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 11Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Romano, Mérida

Mérida ADAthletic Club II

The Footlab model makes Mérida AD the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Athletic Club II. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Mérida AD vs Athletic Club II?

A very open match: only 24 Elo points separate Mérida AD (1,871) and Athletic Club II (1,896).

Mérida AD win40 %
Draw29 %
Athletic Club II win31 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mérida AD have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Athletic Club II have 6, 3 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Mérida AD
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 14, 2026Alcorcon(home)2-1Friendlies Clubs
Aug 7, 2026Leganes(away)0-3Friendlies Clubs
Jul 28, 2026Al-Nassr(home)0-2Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026Benfica B(away)0-4Friendlies Clubs
May 23, 2026Osasuna II(away)2-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Athletic Club II
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 18, 2026Laredo(away)3-0Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026Amorebieta(away)1-0Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026Cultural Leonesa(home)2-0Friendlies Clubs
Jul 29, 2026Sestao River(away)1-0Friendlies Clubs
May 23, 2026Ponferradina(away)0-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Mérida AD win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Athletic Club II win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 20, 2026Athletic Club II 1-1 Mérida ADPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Dec 19, 2025Mérida AD 2-3 Athletic Club IIPrimera División RFEF - Group 1

Last archived meeting: Athletic Club II vs Mérida AD on Mar 20, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Mérida AD score 0.9 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Athletic Club II score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Mérida AD0.91.918/157/15
Athletic Club II1.11.156/156/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Mérida AD sit 10th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (52 points from 38 matches) and Athletic Club II sit 13th (49 points from 38 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
10Mérida AD38141014475352
13Athletic Club II38131015384649

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Mérida AD vs Athletic Club II?
The Footlab model makes Mérida AD the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Athletic Club II.
Where and when is Mérida AD vs Athletic Club II played?
Mérida AD vs Athletic Club II is played on November 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Romano, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Mérida AD and Athletic Club II

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