Defensor Sporting vs Penarol: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 14Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo
The Footlab AI model makes Penarol the favourite at 58%, against 26% for a draw and 16% for Defensor Sporting. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 4,916 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
Penarol starts as the favourite with a 184-point Elo edge (1,953 vs 1,769).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Defensor Sporting vs Penarol
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Defensor Sporting
4-2-3-1- 22A. Torterolo
- 5G. Barrios
- 8Nicolás Andrés Wunsch Tomás
- 24L. de los Santos
- 29T. Pozzo
- 7N. Medina
- 3G. de los Santos
- 11L. Agazzi
- 4G. Rodriguez
- 15A. Frugone
- 12K. Dawson
Penarol
4-2-3-1- 11C. Jaime
- 8N. Fernández
- 13E. Darias
- 21J. Trindade
- 93D. Laxalt
- 80F. González
- 5E. Remedi
- 2G. Pezzella
- 34N. Herrera
- 15M. Olivera
- 29W. Aguerre
Computed on November 8, 2026 at 07:08 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Defensor Sporting have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Penarol have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Progreso(away) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Racing Montevideo(home) | 3-3 | Primera División |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Boston River(away) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Cerro(home) | 2-3 | Primera División |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Albion FC(away) | 2-3 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Wanderers(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Atletico Torque(home) | 0-2 | Copa Uruguay |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Juventud(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Liverpool Montevideo(away) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Progreso(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Defensor Sporting wins, 1 draw, 5 Penarol wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Defensor Sporting 0-2 Penarol | Primera División |
| May 4, 2026 | Penarol 1-1 Defensor Sporting | Primera División |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Penarol 2-1 Defensor Sporting | Primera División - Clausura |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Defensor Sporting 0-2 Penarol | Copa Uruguay |
| Jun 7, 2025 | Penarol 3-0 Defensor Sporting | Primera División |
| May 3, 2025 | Defensor Sporting 0-1 Penarol | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Defensor Sporting vs Penarol on May 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Defensor Sporting score 1.1 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Penarol score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensor Sporting | 1.1 | 1.6 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Penarol | 1.3 | 0.9 | 4 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Defensor Sporting sit 13th in Primera División (12 points from 13 matches) and Penarol sit 5th (22 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Penarol | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 9 | 22 |
| 13 | Defensor Sporting | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 23 | 12 |
A question about Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
- The Footlab AI model makes Penarol the favourite at 58%, against 26% for a draw and 16% for Defensor Sporting.
- Where and when is Defensor Sporting vs Penarol played?
- Defensor Sporting vs Penarol is played on November 15, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Luis Franzini, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.