Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 12Kick-off on October 23, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo
The Footlab AI model makes Racing Montevideo the favourite at 40%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Defensor Sporting. The most likely score is 1-1. If Racing Montevideo wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,606 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo?
A very open match: only 62 Elo points separate Defensor Sporting (1,711) and Racing Montevideo (1,773).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Defensor Sporting
4-2-3-1- 26B. Montenegro
- 5G. Barrios
- 8Nicolás Andrés Wunsch Tomás
- 24L. de los Santos
- 29T. Pozzo
- 7N. Medina
- 3G. de los Santos
- 11L. Agazzi
- 4G. Rodriguez
- 15A. Frugone
- 12K. Dawson
Racing Montevideo
4-4-2- 16T. Habib
- 9S. da Silva
- 10E. da Silva
- 34A. De la Cuesta Airoldi
- 5Juan Bosca
- 39Á. Vázquez
- 13Abdulkadir Ceri
- 37Y. Oyarzo
- 17R. Ferreira
- 4G. Cotugno
- 12F. Varese
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 02:09 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Defensor Sporting have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Racing Montevideo have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Boston River(away) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Cerro(home) | 2-3 | Primera División |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Albion FC(away) | 2-3 | Primera División |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Plaza Colonia(home) | 0-1 | Copa Uruguay |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Danubio(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Wanderers(home) | 3-0 | Primera División |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Juventud(away) | 0-2 | Primera División |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Penarol(home) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Progreso(away) | 1-2 | Primera División |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Liverpool Montevideo(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Defensor Sporting wins, 2 draws, 1 Racing Montevideo win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Racing Montevideo 0-0 Defensor Sporting | Primera División |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Racing Montevideo 1-1 Defensor Sporting | Primera División |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Racing Montevideo 0-1 Defensor Sporting | Primera División - Clausura |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Defensor Sporting 2-0 Racing Montevideo | Primera División |
| Oct 24, 2024 | Defensor Sporting 1-0 Racing Montevideo | Copa Uruguay |
| Sep 13, 2024 | Defensor Sporting 1-2 Racing Montevideo | Primera División - Clausura |
Last archived meeting: Racing Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting on May 30, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Defensor Sporting score 0.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Racing Montevideo score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensor Sporting | 0.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Racing Montevideo | 1.1 | 1.2 | 6 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Defensor Sporting sit 12th in Primera División (8 points from 11 matches) and Racing Montevideo sit 9th (15 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Racing Montevideo | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 15 |
| 12 | Defensor Sporting | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 20 | 8 |
A question about Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Racing Montevideo the favourite at 40%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Defensor Sporting.
- Where and when is Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo played?
- Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo is played on October 23, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Luis Franzini, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.