Juventud vs Penarol: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 12Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Parque Artigas, Las Piedras
The Footlab AI model makes Penarol the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Juventud. The most likely score is 1-1. If Penarol wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.5% of the 2,591 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Juventud vs Penarol?
Penarol starts as the favourite with a 141-point Elo edge (1,946 vs 1,805).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Juventud vs Penarol
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Juventud
4-3-1-2- 15A. Cruz
- 7A. Alaniz
- 37R. Peralta
- 10B. Larregui
- 26G. Pereiro
- 22R. Chagas
- 24F. Barrandeguy
- 14L. Roldán
- 8K. Rolón
- 2P. Pernicone
- 1S. Sosa
Penarol
3-4-2-1- 19M. Arezo
- 8N. Fernández
- 21J. Trindade
- 13E. Darias
- 93D. Laxalt
- 80F. González
- 16T. Olase
- 5E. Remedi
- 6L. Ferreira
- 26Thiago Nahuel Espinosa Dovat
- 29W. Aguerre
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 01:26 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Juventud have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Penarol have 9, 5 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Racing Montevideo(home) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Plaza Colonia(away) | 1-0 | Copa Uruguay |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Boston River(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Cerro(home) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Albion FC(away) | 3-1 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Progreso(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Racing Montevideo(away) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Atletico Torque(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Boston River(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Danubio(away) | 1-1 | Copa Uruguay |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Juventud wins, 3 draws, 3 Penarol wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 20, 2026 | Penarol 2-2 Juventud | Primera División |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Penarol 1-0 Juventud | Primera División - Clausura |
| Mar 27, 2025 | Juventud 0-2 Penarol | Primera División |
| Sep 21, 2019 | Juventud 1-1 Penarol | Primera División - Clausura |
| Aug 18, 2019 | Penarol 0-0 Juventud | Primera División - Clausura |
| Mar 3, 2019 | Penarol 4-1 Juventud | Primera División |
How many goals should we expect?
Juventud score 1.1 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Penarol score 1.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventud | 1.1 | 0.6 | 9 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
| Penarol | 1.9 | 0.7 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Juventud sit 7th in Primera División (17 points from 10 matches) and Penarol sit 3rd (20 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Penarol | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 20 |
| 7 | Juventud | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 17 |
A question about Juventud vs Penarol?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Juventud vs Penarol?
- The Footlab AI model makes Penarol the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Juventud.
- Where and when is Juventud vs Penarol played?
- Juventud vs Penarol is played on October 24, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Parque Artigas, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.