Denbigh Town vs Gresford Athletic: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipNorth - 12Kick-off on October 23, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Central Park, Denbigh, Denbighshire
The Footlab model makes Denbigh Town the favourite at 64%, against 18% for a draw and 18% for Gresford Athletic. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Denbigh Town vs Gresford Athletic?
A very open match: only 96 Elo points separate Denbigh Town (1,583) and Gresford Athletic (1,487).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Denbigh Town have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Gresford Athletic have 4, 0 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Porthmadog(home) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ruthin Town(away) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bangor 1876(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Buckley Town(away) | 4-2 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Colwyn Bay(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Bala Town(away) | 0-3 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Brickfield Rangers(home) | 0-5 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Caersws(away) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Newtown AFC(home) | 0-3 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Guilsfield(away) | 0-4 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Denbigh Town win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Gresford Athletic win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2026 | Denbigh Town 2-3 Gresford Athletic | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Gresford Athletic 0-5 Denbigh Town | FAW Championship |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Gresford Athletic 3-3 Denbigh Town | FAW Championship |
| Aug 23, 2024 | Denbigh Town 5-1 Gresford Athletic | FAW Championship |
| Mar 19, 2024 | Denbigh Town 2-5 Gresford Athletic | FAW Championship |
| Oct 28, 2023 | Gresford Athletic 1-2 Denbigh Town | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Denbigh Town vs Gresford Athletic on Jan 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Denbigh Town score 1.4 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Gresford Athletic score 1.1 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 76% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denbigh Town | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Gresford Athletic | 1.1 | 2.5 | 3 | 5/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Denbigh Town sit 12th in FAW Championship (3 points from 4 matches) and Gresford Athletic sit 16th (0 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Denbigh Town | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 3 |
| 16 | Gresford Athletic | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Denbigh Town vs Gresford Athletic?
- The Footlab model makes Denbigh Town the favourite at 64%, against 18% for a draw and 18% for Gresford Athletic.
- Where and when is Denbigh Town vs Gresford Athletic played?
- Denbigh Town vs Gresford Athletic is played on October 23, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Central Park, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 76% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.