Caersws vs Guilsfield: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipNorth - 12Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)The Recreation Ground, Caersws, Powys
The Footlab model makes Caersws the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Guilsfield. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caersws vs Guilsfield?
A very open match: only 69 Elo points separate Caersws (1,585) and Guilsfield (1,653).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caersws have 7 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats; Guilsfield have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rhyl(away) | 2-4 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gresford Athletic(home) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Mold Alexandra(away) | 2-2 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Denbigh Town(home) | 6-0 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Buckley Town(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ruthin Town(home) | 2-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Newtown AFC(away) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Mold Alexandra(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Rhyl(away) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Gresford Athletic(home) | 4-0 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Caersws win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Guilsfield win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Guilsfield 4-1 Caersws | FAW Championship |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Caersws 0-0 Guilsfield | FAW Championship |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Caersws 5-3 Guilsfield | FAW Championship |
| Jul 27, 2024 | Guilsfield 1-2 Caersws | FAW Championship |
| Mar 19, 2024 | Guilsfield 2-2 Caersws | FAW Championship |
| Oct 28, 2023 | Caersws 2-3 Guilsfield | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Guilsfield vs Caersws on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Caersws score 1.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Guilsfield score 1.6 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caersws | 1.7 | 1.6 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Guilsfield | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Caersws sit 10th in FAW Championship (4 points from 3 matches) and Guilsfield sit 7th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Guilsfield | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| 10 | Caersws | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caersws vs Guilsfield?
- The Footlab model makes Caersws the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Guilsfield.
- Where and when is Caersws vs Guilsfield played?
- Caersws vs Guilsfield is played on October 24, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at The Recreation Ground, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.